I've seen a lot of theory/speculation videos lately and thought I'd share mine here.

As we've seen from some trailers regarding Mu Yuan stabbing and pushing Tou off the cliff, and another where he is attacking Tou with a sword, we can safely assume Mu Yuan will turn dark at some point and become the villain of the story.

However, I don't think Mu Yuan will be the only villain here, it's obvious Mu Yuan doesn't have enough power/authority to pull all the strings that have been going on in this drama. I'm talking about the theft of the Nine Moves of God scroll, the chaos in the martial arts world right now, and the plaque that is spread by Man Fei Yue by the order of someone in the government (confirmed by the gold with government stamp).

According to some trailers and the dialogues spoken by Lord Lu (Tou's brother-in-law), it's safe to assume Lord Lu has a bigger part in the conspiracies behind the scene. His dialogues are: "Shang Guan Tou, it's not for you to decide whether you want to enter my game of go." "The world belongs to the emperor, the emperor is superior to the martial arts world." 

So my theory is:

Lord Lu has been faking sickly appearance in order to deter the ministries and the crown prince from suspecting he covets the throne. It's a strategy as old as time to appear powerless, sick, or even uninterested in the matters of the court in order to stay alive or stage a coup even, which is what Lord Lu is employing here. Lord Lu may have been the one pulling the strings behind the martial arts world, as well as the plaque that was spread through Man Fei Yue's poisonous scorpions.

I'm thinking Lord Lu doesn't just covet the throne but is aiming for something bigger, possibly to solidify his ascension/coup later, that is to destroy or at least subdue the martial arts influence. Lord Lu can only achieve this by having the major sects in the martial arts world to destroy each other and to build his own army, and what better way to achieve this than through the Hall of Flames? Why? Because Hall of Flames has two vital things: Nine Moves of God scroll and weapon manufacturing. He's killing two birds with one stone by working with someone from Hall of Flames because 1. the martial arts world is clearly willing to kill each other for the Nine Moves of God, 2. he gets to strengthen his army power by having Hall of Flames manufacture weapons in secret for him.

Now, as for Mu Yuan's part in this, I've only started to suspect Mu Yuan lately when one of Lord Lu's men visits Mu Yuan. Mu Yuan has the direct control of many of Hall of Flames affairs, including weapon manufactory. Although Mu Yuan is the one who captures the thief of Nine Moves of God scroll, the entire setup seems manufactured and resolved without much effort. If the thief could have been captured easily, why didn't they try this method earlier? I find both Mu Yuan and the head monk, Shi Yan to be suspicious. Hong Sheng may have stolen the Nine Moves of God, but I'm thinking what he stole may have been fake and that Mu Yuan and Shi Yan have been working together right from the start before the Hero Assembly. Creating chaos in the martial arts world using the Nine Moves of God is a brilliant plan to subdue all the major sects, and I think Mu Yuan and Shi Yang work together for that same purpose.

What would be Mu Yuan's motive for doing this? Given Mu Yuan's personality and his protectiveness of Xue Zhi, I can only think his reasoning would be to protect her. Xue Zhi faces threats from all major sects and the martial arts world for her father's blood debt. Mu Yuan couldn't possibly protect her from everyone all the time, so what better way to protect her than to eliminate those threats? Also, Hall of Flames could survive without the martial arts world because they are the main weapon manufacturer right now, and by helping Lord Lu, possibly have the government's backing in the future. All in all, this seems like a good deal for both Hall of Flames and Xue Zhi, hence Mu Yuan's involvement.

However, I do think Tou's presence in the midst of all these proves to be a threat to Lord Lu and his plans. Not only is Tou's shrewd, but he is also the son of Imperial Advisor, meaning Tou also has some parts in the court and could possibly work together with the crown prince. Note that the crown prince has shown interest in recruiting Tou as one of his people before. I'm thinking Lord Lu decides to eliminate Tou, and eventually his whole clan. It is shown in one trailer that Tou's father is captured, possibly framed for treason, which means Tou's fate is death too. His sister is shown crying in one scene and eventually dies (in one bts, Tou is mourning in front of his sister's tomb), either she dies of heartbreak or poisoned because she's essentially a prince's wife so she wouldn't have been punishable by death (I may be wrong on this fact). So, Tou is killed and pushed off the cliff by Mu Yuan may have been by the order of Lord Lu, with the excuse of Tou as the son of the man who commits treason. And this is the reason why Tou couldn't come back into the martial arts world as himself, but instead, create a new persona as Yu Chu Zhi until he could clear his name by exposing all the conspiracies.

In one scene of the trailer, Xue Zhi cut ties with Mu Yuan and he is seen scoffing in disbelief. I think this may be a turning point for Mu Yuan. After everything he has done for Xue Zhi, he is clearly disappointed by her reaction and her decision to cut all ties with him. So that may push Mu Yuan even further to kill Tou when he comes back as Yu Chu Zhi later.

However, there is one part of this story that I haven't figured out. Why is Xue Zhi and Mu Yuan running off together later and appear to be fugitives? They are shown in normal people's clothing and living by the mountain just the two of them. Also, Tou says this in one of the trailers, "No matter how dangerous it will be, I'll be protecting Zhi Er. Whether she's a fugitive or the master of a sect. Whether her sect is orthodox or heterodox. Whether I could be with her for the rest of our life." Right now I'm thinking if this conspiracy is exposed later on, and Hall of Flames is revealed to be part of it, that could be bigger trouble for Xue Zhi and maybe the reason why she becomes a fugitive.

Anyway, that's it for now. I basically wrote an essay, lol. Please feel free to add your own theories and speculations of possible conspiracy and motives.

Thanks a lot for this. I think what you mentioned here  is reasonable and make a lot of sense to me. I will look forward to future episodes. This drama keeps getting interesting.

Thanks! I enjoyed your speculations! I cannot figure out the ending even though there’s so many trailers shown. The plot is getting better,. I still think Mu Yuan is a good guy until the end, even though the trailers shown him otherwise. There must be a killing reason for him to push Tou down the cliff, and results in Zhi Er misunderstanding him. I  also think Tou’s brother is the final boss, other bad guys are just background obstacles along the story. I think Zhi Er might die at the end, due to 1 scene in the trailer where she’s disappearing in Tou’s arm. There’s no speculation for her death, but it’s a possible sad ending! I can’t wait for the story to reveal. 

I'm so happy to read all of your speculations. These all make me even more excited for upcoming episodes. In my ideas, three main vllians would be Prince Lu, Mu Yuan and Qing Mei. I also suspect Feng Zi's father, Ling Jian Mountain Sect Leader, I think he is quite smart to compare with other sect leaders of Hua Shuan and Emei.

About Qing Mei, I want to hear your opinions. Is he just jealous for Tou? I think he turned into evil soon. And, do you remember in one of those spoilers (trailers + Music Videos), that scene when Zhi and someone (I assume Qing Mei) would fight by using that Lotus Nine Move Technique in a distant cliff? So, I think later he would be involved in even more critical and villainous position.

My theories. Because Flame hall can not fullfil  produce weapons on time, they will be taken and punish with military rule. And in criticall moment SGT to help her with help of his father. Which will later on accused of crime of Treason.  All the miseries of Flame hall are instigate by Mr. Lu, maybe because he know CXZ are closed to SGT, but Mr Lu target probably is SGT father, one of strongest supporter of Crown Prince. 

MY probably will be stab SGT because maybe at after SGat & CXZ back together again, something happend to SGT family and involving CXZ because of SGT. So MY will stab SGT as an act to save CXZ and untied her relationship with SGT. But CXZ did not know who stab SGT. And Maybe after this CZX will search SGT with MY in several months.  but soon CXZ know about it and he will heartbroken and eventually learn Nine lotus moves that CXZ father write in the stone and will have obsession to kill SGT. I don't think he will join Mr. Lu. And i'm guessing there are 2 mastermind, one is Mr. Lu and the other i suspect Huasan leader or maybe Sword Manor leader who working together behind the screen. and maybe Sword Manor will used Qingmei and later save by FZ. Maybe QM will lose his martial art in the end and leave with FZ. SGT will be missing but not too long and they will reunite. I'm guessing this will be happy Ending or open ending. 

 Madison Phan:

Thanks! I enjoyed your speculations! I cannot figure out the ending even though there’s so many trailers shown. The plot is getting better,. I still think Mu Yuan is a good guy until the end, even though the trailers shown him otherwise. There must be a killing reason for him to push Tou down the cliff, and results in Zhi Er misunderstanding him. I  also think Tou’s brother is the final boss, other bad guys are just background obstacles along the story. I think Zhi Er might die at the end, due to 1 scene in the trailer where she’s disappearing in Tou’s arm. There’s no speculation for her death, but it’s a possible sad ending! I can’t wait for the story to reveal. 

Xue Zhi won't die, my guess is she disappears from the martial arts world for a while and Tou is imagining her because he misses her. I think it's a happy ending. According to the calendar with events, they're tying the knot at the last episode, the hint it "Tying the red string (usually connotate fated love)."

As for Mu Yuan, I'm really hoping there's a good explanation as to why he tries to assassinate Tou twice because jealousy alone won't cut it. I do believe he will do anything for Xue Zhi's safety even if it means killing Tou.

 Amanda Ainsworth:

I'm so happy to read all of your speculations. These all make me even more excited for upcoming episodes. In my ideas, three main vllians would be Prince Lu, Mu Yuan and Qing Mei. I also suspect Feng Zi's father, Ling Jian Mountain Sect Leader, I think he is quite smart to compare with other sect leaders of Hua Shuan and Emei.

About Qing Mei, I want to hear your opinions. Is he just jealous for Tou? I think he turned into evil soon. And, do you remember in one of those spoilers (trailers + Music Videos), that scene when Zhi and someone (I assume Qing Mei) would fight by using that Lotus Nine Move Technique in a distant cliff? So, I think later he would be involved in even more critical and villainous position.

I don't suspect Qing Mei at all because I don't think he has strong enough motive to execute all these complex machinations. He might attempt to kill Tou at some point, but he doesn't seem like a mastermind to me. In that cliff scene, I paused and scrutinized the video a lot to see who's the guy battling with Tou, based on the clothing, I suspect it's Mu Yuan because he's sporting black garb with slight red in later episodes. I don't suspect Feng Zi's father yet, but I wouldn't deny the possibility considering he was once a prince.

 Is orie:
My theories. Because Flame hall can not fullfil  produce weapons on time, they will be taken and punish with military rule. And in criticall moment SGT to help her with help of his father. Which will later on accused of crime of Treason.  All the miseries of Flame hall are instigate by Mr. Lu, maybe because he know CXZ are closed to SGT, but Mr Lu target probably is SGT father, one of strongest supporter of Crown Prince. 

Since Tou has provided immediate relief, I think they might make it on the weapon production time, maybe just the delivery or the final products get switched, but I agree this might be the reason Xue Zhi and Mu Yuan becomes a fugitive, and Tou doing everything he can to save her again.  Ugh, I can already see Lord Lu instigating everything behind and accuse Tou's father of treason and later command Tou's killing. 

 Is orie:
MY probably will be stab SGT because maybe at after SGat & CXZ back together again, something happend to SGT family and involving CXZ because of SGT. So MY will stab SGT as an act to save CXZ and untied her relationship with SGT. But CXZ did not know who stab SGT. And Maybe after this CZX will search SGT with MY in several months.  but soon CXZ know about it and he will heartbroken and eventually learn Nine lotus moves that CXZ father write in the stone and will have obsession to kill SGT. I don't think he will join Mr. Lu. And i'm guessing there are 2 mastermind, one is Mr. Lu and the other i suspect Huasan leader or maybe Sword Manor leader who working together behind the screen. and maybe Sword Manor will used Qingmei and later save by FZ. Maybe QM will lose his martial art in the end and leave with FZ. SGT will be missing but not too long and they will reunite. I'm guessing this will be happy Ending or open ending. 

Based on recent episodes, there's enough reason to believe Mu Yuan is innocent of conspiring with Lord Lu, but I still think he's going dark later. I do believe Mu Yuan will kill Tou as an attempt to restore Hall of Flames for Xue Zhi, he promised Xue Zhi he will give her a restored Hall of Flames in three years and it seems Xue Zhi will later return to Hall of Flames after being a fugitive. I think Xue Zhi will find out right away that Mu Yuan is Tou's killer, I agree with you that Mu Yuan will learn the Lotus Wing from the cave where Xue Zhi and his dad went into seclusion to practice their martial arts. 

The master villain is def Lord Lu right now, with Huashan sect leader the main suspect of supporting him in the martial arts world according to last night's episodes. Though I do think there's another possible villain connected to the theft of the Nine Moves of God, either it's the head monk of Lu Temple, or still Mu Yuan.