HeadInTheClouds:
If he wins then I would say that he has powerful backing. His popularity is rising and LFY is his biggest breakout so far. However, even then, I would argue that XL and TJC by association are the standouts in breaking out from the success of LYF
I would say the chances of either of them winning are pretty slim, maybe TJC has a slightly better chance (with two big hits back to back in UtS and LYF) but that would be arguing like whether one person has a 2% shot compared to a 1% shot up against a XZ and his fandom (he has won it every year since The Untamed aired). If I were to guess who would get Weibo Night King this year, provided the organizers do the same as last year and give it to someone else because they feel like they can't give it to XZ again (I think he will again win in votes due to his fandom), maybe Cheng Yi? Imo, it's not that important, it's just for fandom bragging rights. You see who the industry power players are as judged by the industry itself (and yes, XZ is one of them) by who gets seated in the front row at Weibo Night and other big awards shows. IIRC at last year's Weibo Night, TJC's seat was two rows behind his LYF co-star Yang Zi, lol I would be interested to see if his seat assignment moves up this year.
As for Deng Wei having powerful backing, I think that's obvious even without a Weibo Night King win. You don't go from a virtual nobody (ok socmed model/influencer, but still small potato) to having pretty substantial roles in major projects to your first leading male role (upcoming Love of the Divine Tree) in the span of about 2-3 years with just sheer luck and hard work (and I absolutely do not discount Deng Wei's work ethic -- he has a strong one). It took TJC almost a decade of toil to get to his first leading male role, by comparison, but that's like comparing apples and oranges to be honest. Deng Wei is still kind of considered in China 小鮮肉, and TJC isn't and I don't think he ever had that image or persona even when he first came on the cdrama scene -- different trajectories, different time frames, and different resources at the outset of their careers.