atmospheres:
It's possible. Weibo Night King and Queen are based on fan voting and he is a rising star with some well-known traffic shows recently like TTEOTM and LYF. There was drama last year over Weibo Night King and Queen because Xiao Zhan and Yang Zi got the most votes (for the 4th year in a row) but the awards were given to Liu Yifei and Hu Ge because it was decided by the organizers not to give it to XZ and YZ again, angering their respective fandoms XFX and 紫米. I would be a bit surprised if Deng Wei won this year, although he is popular I don't think he's popular enough to win (also, XZ and his monolithic XFX exist...so), but who knows what kind of effort his fandom will put in.
I don't know. Even if you take out XZ, I mean, there's a bunch of other actors who seem to have a bigger fan following than DW. Like Dylan, Luo Yun Xi, Cheng Yi, Leo Wu, Xu Kai, Wang Yibo, etc.
atmospheres:
I would say the chances of either of them winning are pretty slim, maybe TJC has a slightly better chance (with two big hits back to back in UtS and LYF) but that would be arguing like whether one person has a 2% shot compared to a 1% shot up against a XZ and his fandom (he has won it every year since The Untamed aired). If I were to guess who would get Weibo Night King this year, provided the organizers do the same as last year and give it to someone else because they feel like they can't give it to XZ again (I think he will again win in votes due to his fandom), maybe Cheng Yi? Imo, it's not that important, it's just for fandom bragging rights. You see who the industry power players are as judged by the industry itself (and yes, XZ is one of them) by who gets seated in the front row at Weibo Night and other big awards shows. IIRC at last year's Weibo Night, TJC's seat was two rows behind his LYF co-star Yang Zi, lol I would be interested to see if his seat assignment moves up this year.
Ah, yes. That makes sense to me, that DW and Tan Jian Ci would have a very, very small chance.
Interesting about the seating arrangements. I guess that's why the LYF crew, as well as others, got front row seats at TenCent. I'll definitely keep my eyes open for that at the next event.
atmospheres:
TJC isn't and I don't think he ever had that image or persona even when he first came on the cdrama scene -- different trajectories, different time frames, and different resources at the outset of their careers.
Yes. Until I realized how much backing and management / agencies mattered, I wondered about some of the casting choices, and why it took so long for Tan Jian Ci. But, I think he said in an interview, that the time he took may be longer, but it was what made him what he is and he's fine with it. He still feels very lucky.